CNN Meteorologist Sarah Dillingham
Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center continued to monitor a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean, located roughly 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. The wave was given only a 20% chance of development on Monday morning, but in their 8am EDT update Wednesday, they increased that to 60% — now a high chance of development in the next 48 hours. Some models do develop this storm and take it on a track through the Lesser Antilles as we approach the weekend, but there remains a great deal of uncertainty in those forecasts. We will be monitoring this wave for further development over the next few days, and if it does indeed become a named storm, it will be Ernesto.
Climatologically, the Cape Verde Islands are where we typically see storms originate during the month of August, so this “Cape Verde storm” is showing up right on time! Remember that earlier this year, we got an early start to both the Pacific and the Atlantic Hurricane Seasons with the development of Tropical Storm Aletta in the Pacific and Tropical Storm Alberto in the Atlantic, also the earliest-forming Atlantic tropical storm since 2003. We have seen very little in the way of tropical activity since Tropical Storm Debby drenched the state of Florida with heavy rains in June, but we will have to wait and see how long that will last as August tends to be an active month of the season.